
Directed Evolution™ DE is a method for developing a comprehensive set of scenarios describing future generations of a system, product/service. DE is based on an extensive set of patterns that reveal the evolutionary tendencies of technological systems. DE provides a means not only to predict but to direct future technological achievements in a given time frame with a specified level of support. Most of the innovations that will appear over the next 20 years will be based upon scientific and technological knowledge existing now. The difficulty lies in identifying what knowledge is of real significance. With hindsight, what seems obscure today will be remarkably clear tomorrow. The role of Directed Evolution™ is to evaluate today's knowledge systematically, thereby identifying what is achievable and, more particularly, how one technological advance, perhaps in conjunction with another, could fulfill a human need.
The Directed Evolution™ process shown below includes the following stages:
1- Collection and analysis of the system’s past (including patent citations, published literature, etc.)
2 - DE diagnostics using the I-TRIZ methodology and tools
3- Synthesis of ideas for system evolution
4- Support the decision-making process and protect intellectual property
5- Support the process of system evolution

Detailed description of each stage:
STAGE 1. Collection and analysis of the system’s past
System structure, functionality, evolution of system functions, problems that have appeared over the system's evolution, etc.
The evolution of related and adjacent systems.
History of the main ideas associated with the system: discoveries, inventions, improvements, evolution of product lines, etc.
System resources, changes in resources as
the system evolved, applicable new resources.
Problems and other obstacles regarding the
production process and its evolution. Present state and evolutionary history of
applicable market sectors, user profiles, and customer expectations. Present state and evolutionary
history of related organizations (competitors, vendors, etc.).
STAGE 2. DE diagnostics. Utilize I-TRIZ tools in order to
Build evolutionary lines for the system.
Determine the current evolutionary position of the system (S-curve analysis).
Reveal missed steps, future steps, wrong directions, dead ends, stalemates, functional deficiencies, unresolved contradictions, subsequent problems, customary inconveniences, psychological inertia, tunnel vision, unreasonable restrictions, etc.
Predicting the highly-probable future steps in system evolution
Defining the methods and conditions required to realize these steps
Defining the limitations for realizing these steps.
Identifying system failures or dangers that might occur in the future.
STAGE 3. Synthesis of ideas
Providing the system’s function(s).
Preventing harmful or undesired effects associated with the system.
System production, delivery, usage, maintenance, etc.
STAGE 4. Support the decision-making process
Integrating compatible ideas into concepts, each of which represents a particular variant of system evolution.
Identifying concepts that are compatible, complementary, or incompatible.
Identifying short-term concepts (improvement), mid-term concepts (next generation), and long-term concepts (future generations)
Formulating the goals for evolution and the strategy and sequence by which these goals will be achieved.
Developing an action plan.
Identifying the required resources.
Protecting intellectual property.
Predicting potential obstacles and disturbances along the way.
Predicting negative results of actions taken and formulating associated subsequent tasks (secondary problems).
Solving new problems that are revealed.
Introducing appropriate changes to the evolutionary scenarios.
STAGE 5. Support the process of system evolution
DE and the Patterns of Evolution
ThePatterns of Evolution can be used to:
·
Predict the next evolutionary steps of a
system.
·
Compare an invention to prior art.
Directed Evolution™ is based on the 12 Patterns of Evolution show above (which includes those discovered by TRIZ originator Genrich Altshuller) together with over 400 Lines of Evolution discovered by Zlotin and Zusman and their team. The DE process has been applied not only to products but to markets, industries, organizations, technologies, processes, and services.
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